Pierre SD | Messages warned of ‘biblical flood’ - February messages urged earlier release

http://www.capjournal.com/articles/2011/06/14/news/doc4df6d00c78f8c907147522.txt

Email warned of ‘biblical flood’

February messages urged earlier release

By Ruth Brown
ruth.brown@capjournal.com
Published/Last Modified on Tuesday, Jun 14, 2011 - 06:05:19 am CDT

FORT PIERRE — In a series of emails sent to a Washington D.C. agency in February, Fort Pierre Public Works Director Brad Lawrence essentially predicted "a flood of biblical proportions" if the U.S. Army Corps of engineers did not start releasing water from the Oahe Dam, the Capital Journal has learned.

In a series of emails sent to Kevin Morley of the American Water Works Association, Lawrence said, "The Corps of Engineers has failed thus far to evacuate enough water from the main stem reservoirs to meet normal runoff conditions. This year’s runoff will be anything but normal. This is compounded by the anticipated flooding downstream."

And in a chillingly accurate summation, Lawrence said in a Feb. 3 document, "The Corps will hold back water to help alleviate the downstream flooding, filling the reservoirs to capacity in the process. Once full, they will pass everything that comes in."

That grim prediction has become reality as the Corps has been forced to release 150,000 cubic feet per second from the reservoir, which is within several inches of the top of the spillway. The result has been millions of dollars in costs to construct levees in Fort Pierre and Pierre, the displacement of dozens of people and severe economic impact to both cities. Water has intruded into parks and neighborhoods and currently threatens millions of dollars of real estate in affluent sections of Fort Pierre.

The Capital Journal obtained Lawrence’s emails pursuant to a South Dakota Freedom of Information request filed with the city of Fort Pierre. The emails (see accompanying box with excerpts of the date and content) were among several sent to Morley, security and preparedness program manager for AWWA, in February to warn of his concerns about potential flooding.

But according to the Army Corps of Engineers no one at the Omaha office, which coordinates activities on the Missouri River system, was ever forwarded those emails.

"We had no correspondence with Fort Pierre during that time that I know of," said Jody Farhat, chief of the Missouri River basin water management office for the USACE.

Even though the Corps may not have been aware of Lawrence’s dire prediction, those emails were forwarded by Morley to every WARN state chair in the nation.

Lawrence, who is the South Dakota WARN chair, said although he did not send that information to the Corps, he finds it "hard to believe that it wouldn’t have gotten passed on to the Corps."

"The info that Brad (Lawrence) shared was meant to let other WARNs know that (Fort Pierre was) looking at a potential flood," said Morley, describing the genesis of the correspondence.

The email trail began with Lawrence’s concerns about the excessive amount of runoff and winter snow pack that would soon be melting.

"In April 2009, the inflow to the Oahe (Dam) was 140,000 cubic feet per second," he said. "That would be a flood of biblical proportions here and downstream" were the Corps forced to pass that incoming water downriver. In fact, the current release rate of 150,000 cfs is the most ever released and will continue until mid-August.

But Farhat said even if the Corps had been aware of Lawrence’s concerns, its models did not predict the event he envisioned. Farhat said the Corps’ studies, even as late as May 1, showed above average snow pack in that last "week or two" of April.

"We were not anticipating these historic (release) levels by any stretch of the imagination until that perfect storm and rainfall we had," said Farhat. On May 20 Farhat said there was an "incredibly large" amount of rainfall over eastern Montana.

"Flows on the Yellowstone River went to record level," said Farhat. "That runoff from rainfall filled up the storage in the reservoir that we had intended to use for the snowmelt."

Lawrence also anticipated in February that the downriver states not directly affected by all the moisture would become affected when the runoff reaches them.

But Farhat maintains that the Corps was not "unduly concerned" about water releases until the May rainfall.

"I understand the whole realm of issues (the Corps must consider), but when you’re number one job is flood control, you need to focus on that," said Lawrence.

Farhat said the Corps monitors snow pack on the plains and in mountains in winter months. They then build on to their model the range of potential runoff and set the releases based on what is needed for the reservoirs of the six dams.

"Flood control was the primary factor for the releases," said Farhat.

Lawrence maintains that when the Omaha District USACE is notified of flaws they are sometimes unresponsive unless the city notifying them has a study to support their information, something that can be prohibitively expensive.

"There are other instances where I have proven the Corps wrong on their hydraulic modeling and it is documented," said Lawrence. "Now that we have (released) much more water than what they predicted . . . they cannot hide from the fact that they were dead wrong."

Levees in Fort Pierre continue to hold but groundwater and city water and utilities will need to continue to be monitored until flooding has subsided.

Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., said on June 2 "I believe there will probably be some kind of hearing with Congress in the future (regarding the Corps)."

Excerpts of emails between Fort Pierre Public Works Director Brad Lawrence and a Washington, D.C. agency warning of flood consequences if water was not released early from the Oahe Dam

• Feb. 3 email from Brad Lawrence to Kevin Morley:

“I anticipate significant flooding from the Missouri River to the East Coast on nearly every significant river. This may be one for the record books.

I am including the Missouri River in that tally at this time. The Corps of Engineers has failed thus far to evacuate enough water from the main stem reservoirs to meet normal runoff conditions. This year’s run off will be anything but normal. This is compounded by the anticipated flooding downstream. The Corps will hold back water to help alleviate the downstream flooding; filling the reservoirs to capacity in the process. Once full, they will pass everything that comes in. In April 2009 the inflow to Oahe was 140,000 cfs. That would be a flood of biblical proportions here and downstream.

I would also anticipate that those states that are down stream and not affected directly by all this moisture will become affected when the runoff reaches them.



I will guarantee that the James River and Big Sioux River in SD will flood. The Red and James in ND along with many tributaries to the Missouri River will flood. Everything in MN including the Mississippi looks like it is primed to flood; especially the Minnesota River.

It looks like this most recent storm went right down the Ohio River Valley. That can’t be good for that system.”

• Feb. 22 email from Kevin Morley to all WARN chairs:

“WARNS in Midwest should be getting ready for Flooding. Any water treatment or wastewater plant along any of these rivers should be ready for flooding…meaning preparing to implement a flood action plan and a recovery plan. Any electrical equipment below the 500 year flood line could be considered at risk and any of it below the 100 year flood line is at greater risk.”

• April 26 email from Brad Lawrence to Kevin Morley:

“At this time, we are on pace to max out the local reservoir. The water content of the mountain snow pack is double what it was last year. That means that high discharges will occur for most of the summer and possibly into the fall season.”

• May 6 email from Brad Lawrence to Kevin Morley:

“If you compare year over year, we are at double the water content for this same time last year in mountain snow pack. That will account for about 1/3 of our total runoff this year and is substantially more than in years past. That is assuming that we get enough warmth this summer to melt it all. We failed to melt all the snow last summer, so it is entirely possible that we will build more year round snow pack, AKA the making of a glacier.”